USMCA in the 2026 Tariff Landscape
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced NAFTA on July 1, 2020, has never been more valuable than it is today. As the US applies 10%+ tariffs on virtually all other trading partners, USMCA-qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico continue to enter the US at zero tariffs for most product categories.
The math is stark: a product manufactured in Vietnam faces a 10% tariff (currently under the 90-day pause, and potentially higher after the pause expires). The same product manufactured in Mexico with USMCA-qualifying origin faces 0%. For companies evaluating supply chain alternatives to China, Mexico has become the single most compelling destination.
What USMCA Covers
USMCA provides preferential (typically zero) tariff rates on goods that:
- Originate in the US, Mexico, or Canada, AND
- Meet the specific Rules of Origin applicable to their HTS product category, AND
- Are accompanied by a valid USMCA certification of origin
USMCA covers goods traded in both directions โ it is not just for US imports. US exporters to Canada and Mexico also benefit from preferential access.
Rules of Origin: How to Know if Your Product Qualifies
Each HTS product category has a specific rule of origin under USMCA. The three main rule types:
Tariff Shift (Change in Tariff Classification)
The most common rule type requires that non-USMCA inputs be transformed enough during North American manufacturing that the finished product is classified under a different HTS heading or chapter than the inputs. Example: Chinese steel rods (Chapter 72) manufactured into bolts (Chapter 73) in Mexico could qualify if the tariff shift requirement is met.
Regional Value Content (RVC)
Some rules require that a minimum percentage (typically 45โ60% for manufactured goods, 75% for automotive) of the product's value originate in the USMCA region. RVC can be calculated using the Transaction Value method or the Net Cost method โ the choice affects which costs are included.
Specific Process Rules
For textiles, apparel, chemicals, and steel/aluminum, USMCA includes specific process requirements such as "yarn forward" for apparel (yarn, fabric, and garment must all be North American) or "melt and pour" for steel (the steel must be melted and poured in North America).
Automotive Rules of Origin
USMCA's automotive rules are the most complex and most consequential in the agreement. For a passenger vehicle to qualify for preferential treatment:
- 75% Regional Value Content: 75% of the vehicle's value must originate in the USMCA region (up from 62.5% under NAFTA)
- 70% steel and aluminum content must come from North American melt and pour
- Labor Value Content (LVC): 40% of auto content must be produced by workers earning at least US$16/hour
These rules were designed specifically to discourage use of Chinese steel, aluminum, and auto components in USMCA-qualifying vehicles.
How to Certify USMCA Origin
Unlike NAFTA, which required a formal certificate on a specific CBP form, USMCA allows the certification of origin to be on any document as long as it contains the required data elements. The certifier can be:
- The exporter or producer, OR
- The importer (if the importer has knowledge that the goods qualify)
Required data elements for a valid USMCA certification:
- Certifier's name, title, address, telephone, and email
- Exporter's name, address, and contact (if different from certifier)
- Producer's name, address, and contact (if different from certifier and known)
- Importer's name, address, and contact
- Description of goods and HTS classification
- Origin criterion (A, B, C, or D)
- Blanket period (for blanket certifications covering multiple shipments)
- Authorized signature and date
What Happens if CBP Questions Your USMCA Claim
CBP can request verification of a USMCA origin claim through a process called a verification (formerly "verification audit"). CBP may send written questions to the importer, exporter, or producer and can conduct on-site visits in limited circumstances. If verification reveals that goods did not qualify, CBP can:
- Deny the preferential tariff treatment for the specific shipment
- Assess duties retroactively on past entries
- Issue penalties for false statements on customs documents
Record-keeping is critical: USMCA requires that producers, exporters, and importers maintain supporting records for 5 years from the date of the certification.
USMCA for "Nearshoring" from China to Mexico
Many US companies are relocating production from China to Mexico specifically to access USMCA zero-tariff treatment. Important considerations:
- Mexican content must be genuinely substantial: Simply shipping Chinese components to Mexico for assembly generally will not satisfy USMCA rules of origin โ the tariff shift or RVC test must actually be met
- Mexican factory costs are rising: Demand for Mexican manufacturing capacity has driven up labor costs and real estate in border regions
- Infrastructure constraints: Power availability, logistics infrastructure, and skilled labor supply in Mexico are real constraints on rapid capacity scaling
- Long-term trade policy risk: USMCA is subject to a joint review in 2026 โ any renegotiation could change the rules for future years
Bottom Line
USMCA is one of the most powerful trade preference programs available to US importers. In the current tariff environment, qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico have a structural cost advantage over virtually all other sourcing options. Use our HTS code lookup to identify your product's HTS code, research the applicable USMCA rule of origin, and consult with a trade attorney to evaluate whether your supply chain can be structured to qualify.